Editor's Note: As the Celtics enter a critically important offseason, Chris Forsberg is exploring three different paths Boston can take this summer, each with their own pros and cons for the short- and long-term future of the franchise. Part I involved "threading the needle." Part II featured a "full reboot." The final path: a "Golden State Bridge."
Let’s start this final entry with a brief rant.
If we learned anything from our deep dives into Boston’s potential offseason paths, it’s that the NBA really screwed up by not rewarding teams for developing homegrown talent in its latest collective bargaining agreement.
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SIGN UP HERE The Celtics find themselves with excruciating offseason choices, most notably having to potentially move core players drafted and developed.
Instead of being rewarded for building organically, Boston has been handcuffed by the accolades of its draftees. Instead of offering some sort of incentive for teams to build through the draft, the NBA is penalizing the Celtics because their stars were deemed to be among the 15 best players in the league, which maximized the percentage of the cap they were able to sign for on new deals.
The new CBA makes it virtually impossible to build a sustainable roster around two supermax players earning 35 percent of the cap, which will be the case with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown this summer when Tatum's extension kicks in.
The NBA should consider offering some sort of tax exemption to teams that don’t simply purchase significant parts of their roster. If you want to protest that Boston did such by adding Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to set up their title win, we’d push back that two other homegrown products were at the centerpiece of those deals in Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III.
The constraints of this new CBA are going to leave teams hoping that their stars don’t hit All-NBA status or earn other season awards, because it will further complicate the financial puzzle. Instead of embracing successes, fanbases are left celebrating snubs. It’s absurd.
But we digress. The same CBA that is trying to tear Boston’s championship core apart also might produce the sort of league-wide parity that could help the Celtics acquire the necessary parts to chase Banner 19.
For Part 3 of this series, we’re pondering a path where teams craving their own slice of Boston’s championship DNA might help build a bridge to the next championship team.
And we’re hunting for hints with the 2022 Golden State Warriors.
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Objectives of this path:
- Maintain much of the core, but understand the bumps ahead.
- Use interest in veteran pieces to generate future assets.
The road map:
- Maintain a core of Tatum, Brown and Derrick White.
- Load manage the stars over the next two seasons and lean into youth.
- Focus on returning to title contention for 2027-28 season.
Why this path makes sense:
In Part 1, we pondered threading a needle where the Celtics keep much of the core but attempted to stay afloat through Tatum’s rehab. In Part 2, we pondered a more nuclear option in which the team dismantled the core but prioritized getting the long-term financials in order.
Path 3 here tries to do a little bit of both, and -- a bit ironically -- seeks to replicate what the 2022 Warriors did before upending the Celtics in the NBA Finals that year.
Essentially, the Celtics would embrace the reality that the next two seasons could be bumpy, but all eyes would be on giving this core another chance to tap into their championship DNA in the 2027-28 season.
Why this path might not make sense:
Even while preserving a Tatum/Brown/Derrick White core, there is little room to work with on the fringes.
Two of those players will be over the age of 30 by the time that 2026-27 season starts. What’s more, there are still obstacles to getting out of the tax long-term, and Boston has to nail its draft and development along the way.
In a way, it’s threading an even more fine needle than we pondered in Path 1.
Before we travel down this path...
Let’s zip through three paths we didn’t choose for this series, but that we spent way too much time considering along the way:
1. The 'Get more Derrick Whites' path
No, we’re not cloning him (unless you’ve got the technology to do that). We’re trying to make a bunch of trades that bring back versatile, budget-friendly players who could blossom in elevated roles.
Alas, Boston’s most tradable assets make too much money to swing those sort of deals, at least without taking back bulky expiring salary in the process. It’s nearly impossible to find deal that brings back a Deni Avdija or a Tari Eason that works for both sides.
2. The 'We're getting the band back together' path
You knew were weren’t doing this entire series without concocting a way to get Robert Williams III back in green.
In this scenario, the Celtics move on from both Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis but open pathways to (eventually) bringing back Smart and Williams III.
Preposterous? Both Smart and Williams III will be free agents after the 2025-26 season and should command less than their current contracts. The Celtics also could generate a disabled player exception this year if a league-approved doctor determines it’s more likely than not that Tatum will not play in the 2025-26 season.
The DPE is typically worth half the value of a player’s salary but is capped at the non taxpayer midlevel, or roughly $14 million. It can be used to sign a free agent or trade for a player in the final year of his contract, and -- well, well, well -- Williams III checks all those boxes. (Let’s ignore the fact that Boston would still have to pay the tax on that addition.)
Bottom line: It’s possible and you can’t convince my nostalgia-loving heart it’s not.
3. The Pritchard/White path
The Celtics blow up the core to build around the only duo in franchise history to produce a 40/40 game. OK, let’s get refocused here.
About that 'Golden State Bridge'...
It’s hard to draw too much from how the Warriors navigated their own bridge period. Golden State benefited from getting a robust return when Kevin Durant left to join the Brooklyn Nets. While D’Angelo Russell didn’t exactly pan out with the Warriors, he was flipped to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins, who was a vital piece in Golden State’s 2022 title run (as Celtics fans know too well).
What it does hammer home is how getting some sort of youthful return for outgoing pieces could be vital in the long-term quest.
In Part 1, we wondered if the Celtics could take on the money of someone like Daniel Gafford or P.J. Washington while moving Holiday to Dallas. In this path, the goal is hoping teams fold in a prized young asset (or draft pick) as the Celtics get off Holiday’s money.
Here’s where parity needs to come into play. The Celtics need teams to be willing to splurge a bit -- even on a 35-year-old Holiday -- to maximize the return (and also limit what the Celtics might have to spend in draft assets to move his money).
Doing that without eating a large, cumbersome salary isn’t easy. You might have to spend a draft asset just to get another team to take on some of the incoming money. And the teams that might yearn for Holiday’s services, such as the Mavericks, Lakers, and Clippers, don’t have the young pieces to send out.
The bigger theme here is patience. Maybe Brown elects to pursue surgery on his knee and is paced through the 2025-26 season while Tatum rehabs for the entirety as well. There’s a chance for an earlier launch with the 2026-27 season, but even that campaign could be about staying under the tax and making sure everyone is back near their full powers.
Maybe it’s as simple as Boston trying to generate as many 2026 draft picks as possible, both while enduring their lumps next season but also trying to fetch that as a primary return in all their dealings.
There are other pain points, too. Al Horford would be north of 40 before the team is ready to compete again. Could the team splurge to keep Luke Kornet around long-term? Sam Hauser could be a cap casualty along the way as well -- an unfair reality after being developed as an undrafted talent.
Essentially, this path puts the pressure on Brad Stevens to accumulate assets in the short term before a hard relaunch around an older core. Like everything in this series, it’s not without risks.
But the Warriors at least showed there’s a pathway back to title contention, even if you have to take a big step back to get there.