It's hard to win in the NFL, especially on a consistent basis. Only four teams have an active playoff appearance streak longer than three years.
But you could also argue that a huge turnaround can be executed in a short amount of time in pro football. Major upgrades at key positions, especially quarterback, can spark a major resurgence. Replacing a lackluster head coach with a good one also can pay immediate dividends.
After back-to-back seasons finishing last place in the AFC East division with a 4-13 record, could the New England Patriots be the next team to go from last place to qualifying for the playoffs in just one year?
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The Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Chargers both made the playoffs last season after finishing last in their respective divisions in 2023. The Commanders improved from 4-13 to 12-5 and ultimately reached the NFC Championship Game. The Chargers improved from 5-12 to 11-6 and advanced to the AFC Divisional Round.
In 2023, the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans got to the playoffs after a last-place finish in their divisions the year before. And in 2022, the Ravens, Giants, Seahawks and Jaguars went to the playoffs after placing last in their divisions in 2021.
Let's focus on the 2024 Commanders and Chargers.
How did those teams go from last place to the playoffs, and are there any similarities between them and the 2025 Patriots?
One similarity is changing head coaches.
The Chargers fired Brandon Staley after two-plus seasons. They hired Jim Harbaugh from the University of Michigan, where he won a national title in 2023. He also had previously been a successful head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and helped lead them to Super Bowl XLVII.
The Commanders fired Ron Rivera after four seasons and a 26-40 record. They brought in Dan Quinn, a defensive-minded head coach who took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl in 2016. Quinn played a huge role in helping the Commanders become a professionally-run organization in short order.
"He's the best culture-builder I've seen," Commanders run game coordinator Anthony Lynn said of Quinn in an interview with FOX Sports in January. "When he's done with the NFL, he can just travel and teach people how to build good cultures, because he does that very well. And it just comes so natural to him. It's something he has a passion for. You can see it. And I think that authenticity is what makes guys trust him and buy in so fast. He's a damn good X's and O's football coach. But as a culture-builder, he's the best I've been around."
Both coaches -- Harbaugh and Quinn -- transformed the culture of their teams. The Patriots are hoping Mike Vrabel can do the same this season. Vrabel was brought in to replace Jerod Mayo, who was fired by New England after only one season. Vrabel has a great reputation as a culture-builder and someone who players like to play for and respect. It remains to be seen how many games the Patriots win in 2025, but you know they'll be well-prepared under Vrabel.
"Love playing for Vrabel so far. Great energy," Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez told reporters at OTAs last week. "Everything you see on TV, that’s exactly what you get... His energy, he always has great energy. Always smiling. I've enjoyed it.”
Another aspect of the Commanders' turnaround was adding a lot of good second- and third-tier free agents. Washington signed running back Austin Ekeler, wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, tight end Zach Ertz, center Tyler Biadasz, defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., defensive end Clelin Ferrell, defensive end Dorance Armstrong, linebacker Bobby Wagner, linebacker Frankie Luvu, safety Jeremy Chinn and cornerback Noah Igbinoghene, among others in 2024 free agency.
Wagner led the team with 132 total tackles in 2024. Chinn finished second with 117 and Luvu was third with 99. Fowler led Washington with 10.5 sacks, Luvu had eight and Ferrell had 3.5. All of these defensive players were offseason additions.
In one free agency period, the Commanders totally transformed their defense under a defensive-minded head coach. As a result, Washington went from giving up the most yards per game in 2023 to the third-fewest last season.
The Patriots could potentially engineer a similar turnaround defensively with Vrabel.
New England spent more than $300 million in free agency this offseason, and a huge chunk of that money went to fixing the defense. Here are the most notable additions on that side of the ball:
- Milton Williams, DL: Four years, $104 million
- Robert Spillane, LB: Three years, $37.5 million
- Harold Landry, LB: Three years, $43.5 million
- Carlton Davis, CB: Three years, $60 million
The biggest reason why the Commanders went from last place to the playoffs was the MVP-caliber play of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
The Commanders, with their draft picks and free agent signings, put enough talent around Daniels for him to thrive. The Patriots took a couple steps toward doing the same for Drake Maye entering the 2025 season.
The Patriots signed wideouts Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses in free agency. They also drafted left tackle Will Campbell in the first round, Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson in the second round, Georgia center Jared Wilson in the third round and Washington State wideout Kyle Williams in the third round.
Josh McDaniels was hired as the offensive coordinator, as well. He has a proven track record developing quarterbacks and understands the Patriots franchise as well as anyone.
Maye showed signs of franchise quarterback potential in his 13 games as a rookie last season. He was given one of the worst offensive lines and wide receiver groups in football and still made a lot of impressive plays.
Maye will need to cut down on the turnovers -- he had 10 interceptions and six fumbles as a rookie -- but he has the physical tools and football IQ to be a very good (maybe even great) starting quarterback. He has a powerful arm, he's accurate, and he has the athleticism to escape the pocket and pick up lots of yards running the football.
Another factor working in the Patriots' favor is their schedule. They have the third-easiest 2025 regular season schedule (easiest among AFC teams) based on their opponents' 2024 win percentage. The first four games are all winnable and three of them are at home.
Spending a lot of money in free agency doesn't guarantee success. The Patriots also spent a lot in 2021 and the success they had the next season was short lived. It's also possible that Maye doesn't live up to his potential.
But after massively upgrading and overhauling the coaching staff with Vrabel at the top, making substantial improvements on defense, addressing left tackle (Campbell), bringing in a No. 1 wideout (Diggs) and getting to play a soft schedule, the Patriots have a great opportunity to make meaningful progress over the next year.
There's usually at least one or two surprise playoff teams every season. The Patriots could absolutely be one of them in 2025.